Wall Street Misread Trump — Big Time
In mid-February, some of the world’s most powerful investors and executives—controlling trillions in assets—gathered in Miami for a Saudi-backed conference. They waited for hours to hear Donald Trump speak, expecting a pro-business roadmap for his second term. Among them: Robert Smith, Bridgewater CEO Nir Bar Dea, and Apollo co-founder Josh Harris.
Trump’s message? America under his leadership would be the best place to innovate, grow wealth, and dominate global industries. The markets were soaring, and for many in that room, the future seemed bright.
But less than two months later, optimism turned to chaos.
Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping global tariffs—especially his hardline on China—sent financial markets into turmoil. The S&P 500 lost over $5 trillion in value in just two days. M&A deals dried up, law firms came under pressure, and companies from Delta to Walmart slashed their earnings forecasts.
Wall Street, it turned out, hadn’t taken Trump’s economic warnings seriously. Many assumed cooler heads in his administration would temper any radical policy changes. Instead, Trump doubled down on his trade agenda, escalating a global economic confrontation.
Even staunch allies were blindsided. Investors and CEOs, initially silent, began expressing concern as inflation fears and recession risks mounted. Some, like Bill Ackman and Dan Loeb, aired frustrations publicly. Others, like JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, attempted to influence policy—this time via the media, not closed-door meetings.
Trump’s inner circle remained loyal, but the broader financial sector began to realise the administration’s priorities were no longer aligned with Wall Street. JD Vance made it clear: this presidency is about the working class, not corporate elites.
Meanwhile, Trump’s trade policies triggered a chain reaction in global finance:
• Foreign investors pulled money from US markets
• Bond markets behaved like those of emerging economies
• Private capital markets began to freeze
• The dollar weakened significantly
Eventually, Trump partially paused his tariff scheme—but not before the financial damage had been done. The move wasn’t prompted by Wall Street lobbying, but by signs of real instability: volatile bond yields, capital flight, and collapsing investor confidence.
For now, the business world is reassessing. The belief that Trump’s presidency would bring predictable tax cuts and deregulation has been replaced by uncertainty. Financial leaders now face an unpredictable White House that’s less interested in appeasing them, and more focused on delivering to its voter base.
What this means going forward:
• Market volatility could remain high
• Tariffs may return if trade deals aren’t secured
• Wall Street’s influence on the administration is diminished
• Private equity and leveraged firms could be in for rough months
Trump calls it an “economic revolution.” For Wall Street, it’s a reminder: ignore political risk at your own peril.
