Iran is moving to tighten its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping routes, with plans that could outlast the current conflict.
The strait, which typically handles around 20% of global oil exports, has been largely shut since the outbreak of war. Now, Tehran is signalling a shift toward a controlled system where only approved ships are allowed through — and potentially charged for access.
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What’s Changing
• Iran is introducing a system where only “non-hostile” vessels can pass
• Ships must coordinate directly with Iranian authorities for approval
• US, Israeli, and allied vessels are currently excluded
• Tehran has made clear it intends to maintain control even after the war ends
Iran’s foreign minister has stated the country plans to establish “new arrangements for safe passage”, reinforcing its claim of sovereignty over the waterway.
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A New System of Control
The Strait of Hormuz is just 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, with parts running through Iranian waters — giving Tehran significant physical oversight of passing ships.
The new system reportedly includes:
• Government-to-government negotiations for approval
• Ships receiving a unique code to broadcast when entering the strait
• Iranian authorities verifying cargo, crew, and destination
• Routing vessels through Iranian-controlled waters for monitoring
Traffic has already collapsed, with ship transits down over 97% compared to pre-war levels.
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The Cost of Passage
There are growing indications that Iran is charging for access:
• Some reports suggest fees of up to $2 million per vessel
• Payments are believed to be handled through informal or “shadow” financial networks
• Most ships still passing through are linked to China, India, or regional allies
While not officially confirmed across all cases, the structure points to the emergence of a pay-to-pass system.
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Shifting Trade Flows
• No recent shipments through the strait have been destined for US or European markets
• Most cargo is now flowing toward Asia, Africa, and South America
• Some vessels are reportedly reflagging to bypass restrictions
Over 3,000 ships are currently stuck in the Gulf due to the disruption.
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Legal and Strategic Questions
Iran’s actions raise serious questions under international maritime law:
• Coastal states can regulate traffic for security
• But they are not allowed to discriminate between vessels or restrict “innocent passage”
A long-term attempt to control access could trigger legal disputes and global pushback.
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Bigger Picture
This isn’t just about control — it’s about leverage.
• Iran could generate tens of billions annually if fees are formalised
• The strait becomes not just a chokepoint, but a strategic economic asset
• Gulf states may accelerate alternative routes, such as pipelines, to bypass it entirely
If this system holds, it would mark a fundamental shift in global energy logistics.
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Bottom Line
Iran isn’t just closing the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s attempting to redefine how it operates — turning a global trade artery into a controlled, monetised gateway.
And if that model sticks, the impact won’t just be regional.
It will reshape global oil flows.
